Sun 15 Jan 2023 14:45 - 14:50 at Scollay - Third Session Chair(s): Steven Holtzen, Christine Tasson

Universal probabilistic programming languages (PPL) allow language features such as stochastic branching which results in probabilistic models with stochastic support. We argue that naively applying Bayesian inference in these models can be misguided, and will often yield inference results that are unstable and overconfident. The root cause of this problem is that the posterior of these programs is essentially a Bayesian Model Average (BMA) over the program’s constituent straight-line programs (SLP), whereby each SLP can be viewed as a separate model. We present initial work for an alternative to the “full Bayes” posterior which is based on the idea of stacking from the statistics and machine learning literature.

Pitfalls of Full Bayesian Inference in Universal Probabilistic Programming (lafi23-final83.pdf)310KiB

Sun 15 Jan

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14:00 - 15:30
Third SessionLAFI at Scollay
Chair(s): Steven Holtzen Northeastern University, Christine Tasson Sorbonne Université — LIP6
14:00
20m
Talk
The Variable Elimination Algorithm as a Let-Term RewritingParis
LAFI
Thomas Ehrhard CNRS and University Paris Diderot, Claudia Faggian Université de Paris & CNRS, A: Michele Pagani IRIF - Université de Paris Cité
14:20
20m
Talk
Contextual source code AD transformations for sum typesOnline
LAFI
Adam Paszke Google Research, A: Gordon Plotkin Google
File Attached
14:45
5m
Talk
Pitfalls of Full Bayesian Inference in Universal Probabilistic ProgrammingOnline
LAFI
A: Tim Reichelt University of Oxford, C.-H. Luke Ong University of Oxford, Tom Rainforth Department of Statistics, University of Oxford
File Attached
14:50
5m
Talk
∂ is for Dialectica: typing differentiable programmingOnline
LAFI
A: Marie Kerjean CNRS, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Pierre-Marie Pédrot INRIA
15:00
5m
Talk
On the Reparameterisation Gradient for Non-Differentiable but Continuous ModelsBoston
LAFI
C.-H. Luke Ong NTU, A: Dominik Wagner University of Oxford
File Attached
15:05
5m
Talk
Partial Evaluation of Forward-Mode Automatic DifferentiationBoston
LAFI
A: Oscar Eriksson KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Viktor Palmkvist KTH Royal Institute of Technology, David Broman KTH Royal Institute of Technology
15:10
5m
Talk
Distribution Theoretic Semantics for Non-Smooth Differentiable ProgrammingBoston
LAFI
Pedro Henrique Azevedo de Amorim Cornell University, A: Christopher Lam University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
15:15
5m
Talk
New foundations for probabilistic separation logicBoston
LAFI
A: John Li Northeastern University, Amal Ahmed Northeastern University, USA, Steven Holtzen Northeastern University
File Attached
15:20
5m
Talk
Verified Reversible Programming for Verified Lossless CompressionBoston
LAFI
A: James Townsend University of Amsterdam, Jan-Willem Van De Meent University of Amsterdam
15:25
5m
Talk
Towards type-driven data-science in Idris
LAFI
Ohad Kammar University of Edinburgh, Katarzyna Marek University of Edinburgh, Minh Nguyen University of Bristol, Michel Steuwer University of Edinburgh, Jacob Walters University of Edinburgh, Robert Wright The University of Edinburgh, UK